Ag Market Commentary

Corn is trading 3 3/4 to 4 cents higher at midday. USDA’s Export Sales report showed old crop bookings in line with estimates at 637,467 MT. New crop corn bookings added only 27,509 MT to the week’s sales. Outstanding corn sales for the MY dropped due to high shipments. Weekly exports were the 2nd highest for the MY at 53.02 mbu, and unshipped sales were 451.2 mbu on 05/29. Census data released this morning showed official corn shipments in April at 5.06 MMT, with Sept-April exports at 25.4 MMT. Ethanol and DDGs exports were listed at 99.4m gallons and 765,636 MT respectively. Those were 3-yr and 8-yr lows for the month for the fuel and feed stock respectively. U.S. Grains Council reported ethanol FOB prices were up 2.2% on the week to $1.290 from the Gulf.

Jul 20 Corn is at $3.28 3/4, up 4 3/4 cents,

Sep 20 Corn is at $3.32 3/4, up 4 1/4 cents,

Dec 20 Corn is at $3.42 1/4, up 4 cents,

Mar 21 Corn is at $3.54 1/4, up 3 3/4 cents,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



The soybean futures market is trading 10 1/2 to 12 cents higher at midday. Front month soymeal futures are up another $4.50/ton. Bean oil futures are down 11 more points so far. USDA reported another private sale of Soybeans to unknown this morning; the 120,000 MT was split 50/50 old and new crop. The 495,171 MT of old crop bean bookings in the weekly report were just below pre-report estimates, and were 3% below the same week last year. New crop bean bookings were above estimates with 607,400 MT sold. Total commitments for 2020/21 soybeans are up to 2.94 MMT through 05/28. Of that 51% is China alone. Soymeal bookings from the report were on the high end of estimates with 558,917 MT booked. That was an expected increase of 339% wk/wk and 404% above the same week last year (recall large sale previously announced to Philippines). Accumulated soymeal shipments through May 28 were 8.1 MMT, which trails last year’s pace by 2%. Bean oil bookings were reported at 9,409 MT with 75,874 MT shipped. Shipments were the second highest for the MY and also second highest since 02/27 ’14. Census Data showed that April soybean shipments totaled 423,891 MT which put the MY total at 12.84 MMT. The same data showed 1.1 MMT of meal shipped and 104k MT for bean oil.

Jul 20 Soybeans are at $8.69 1/2, up 12 cents,

Aug 20 Soybeans are at $8.70, up 11 cents,

Sep 20 Soybeans are at $8.71, up 10 1/2 cents,

Nov 20 Soybeans are at $8.77 1/4, up 11 cents,

Jul 20 Soybean Meal is at $290.80, up $4.50

Jul 20 Soybean Oil is at $27.76, down $0.10

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Wheat markets are spiking higher continuing the Wednesday gains. SRW futures are trading 14 to 16 cents higher at midday. HRW futures are up 3.2 to 4% at midday with gains as high as 18 cents so far. MPLS wheat futures are the firmest at midday but still up by as much as 8 1/2 cents. Old crop Wheat sales from the week ending May 28 were 179,498 MT. New crop sales were in line with pre-report estimates with 437,297 MT booked on the week. Shipments came in at 752,800 MT, which was the 3rd highest for the MY and 0.14% above the same week last year. With another week to add, and official census data to come, accumulated wheat exports sit at 93% of USDA’s forecast. Total 19/20 commitments are 2% above the forecast. April wheat shipments from Census data were 2.37 MMT, taking the MY total to 23.3 MMT through the month.

Jul 20 CBOT Wheat is at $5.27 1/4, up 15 1/4 cents,

Jul 20 KCBT Wheat is at $4.75 1/2, up 17 3/4 cents,

Jul 20 MGEX Wheat is at $5.28 3/4, up 8 1/2 cents,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Thursday trading sees 40 cent to $1.02 gains in the front month futures with Dec ’21 up the most so far. Feeder contracts are trading up by 67 to 85 cents. Reports indicated moderate cash activity at $117 on Wednesday afternoon in all feeding regions and some $180 sales in NE on Thursday. Beef sales from USDA’s Export Sales report were a 6-wk high of 12,287 MT. The report also showed that 9,579 MT of beef was shipped on the week ending 05/28. That was down 15% wk/wk and 46% below the same week last year, but 2020 exports are still 7% ahead of last year’s pace. Census data showed that 235m lbs of beef was shipped in April. That was down 12% from March and 4% below April 19. 2020 exports through April were on a record setting pace with 1b lbs shipped at that point. Wholesale boxed beef prices continue pushing lower. Choice boxes were down $19 flat to $276.90 cwt., and Select boxes were down by $11.82 cwt. The Chc/Sel spread narrowed to $11.94. USDA estimated FI cattle slaughter for the week through Wednesday at 340,000 head. WTD slaughter is still running 20k head behind last year’s pace.

Jun 20 Cattle are at $95.850, up $0.400,

Aug 20 Cattle are at $98.025, up $0.675,

Oct 20 Cattle are at $100.875, up $0.900,

Aug 20 Feeder Cattle are at $135.075, up $0.850

Sep 20 Feeder Cattle are at $136.650, up $0.875

Oct 20 Feeder Cattle are at $137.325, up $0.750

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Lean hog futures are trading up by 30 to 92 cents so far, with June contracts the outlier. After a limit move lower yesterday June futures are down another 77 cents. The CME Lean Hog index was down another $2.17 on June 02, to $57.06. USDA’s weekly update to pork export sales showed 17,335 MT booked on the week ending May 28. Shipments from the same week added 31,276 MT to the 2020 total of 858,805 MT. Accumulated shipments are 68% ahead of last year’s pace. Of the week’s shipments, 42% were destined for China. China has been the destination for 41% of all pork shipments so far in 2020, and is on pace to more than double last year’s total as shipments are just 16,153 MT below their 2019 total already. Census pork exports from April were 641m lbs. That is down 8.6% mo/mo but still a record for April. USDA National Average Morning Base Hog price for Thursday was $3.92, down $0.87. The National Pork Carcass Cutout Value was back up by $4.02 in the AM updated at $79.03. USDA estimated WTD FI hog slaughter at 1.254 million head through Wednesday. This week’s pace is running 164,000 head behind the same week last year.

Jun 20 Hogs are at $47.875, down $0.775,

Jul 20 Hogs are at $53.775, up $0.300

Aug 20 Hogs are at $55.700, up $0.800

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



After gaining earlier this week cotton futures are giving back 10 to 21 points across the front months, with May ’21 the weakest. The weekly Export Sales report showed a net reduction in cotton bookings on the week at minus 10,089 RBs. Cotton shipments were 237,923 RBs on the week, for a MY total of 11.32m RBs. Cotton exports were 1.25m bales in April according to the latest Census update. That brought accumulated cotton exports to 11.77m bales through April. Tuesday added 5,348 bales to the week’s total of 10,664 bales sold on The Seam. The sales went for an average gross price of 51.27 cents/lb. That was above Monday’s sales, and was the largest daily sale on The Seam since May 08. The Cotlook A index was another 25 points higher on June 03 to 67.90c/lb. The AWP for cotton is 47.48 cents/lb, through this afternoon and the LDP is 4.52 cents/lb.

Jul 20 Cotton is at 60.33, down 15 points,

Oct 20 Cotton is at 59.63, down 10 points

Dec 20 Cotton is at 59.53, down 20 points

Mar 21 Cotton is at 60.21, down 17 points

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management






Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com

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