Cotton futures are down 60 to 70 points so far on Friday, as USDA’s production cut didn’t go quite far enough for the bulls. The outside markets are mixed, with the crude oil down 53 cents /barrel and the US dollar index 133 points lower.

NASS’s bi-monthly Cotton Ginnings report showed a total of 1.146 million RB of cotton ginned as of October 1, up 473,933 RB the middle of September and the largest for this time since 2019. 

The monthly update to the Crop Production report from NASS showed that yield was cut by 18 lbs/acre this month to 789 lbs, mainly due to a 176 lb/ac reduction to Georgia, while Texas was up 38 lbs. That helped to trim the production total by 310,000 bales to 14.2 million. NASS did note that while the producers’ surveys came after Hurricane Helene made landfall, “the full impact from the storm may not be reflected until future reports.” Due to a 100,000 bale reduction to domestic use and 300,000 few forecasted exports, US ending stocks for 2024/25 were revised 100,000 bales higher to 4.1 million.

On the world side of the cotton balance sheet, the 2024/25 stocks projection was down 160,000 bales to 76.33 million, mainly helped by a lower carryover. 

The Seam reported 1,000 bales of online sales on October 10 at an average price of 74.40 cents/lb. ICE cotton stocks were unchanged on Thursday, leaving 265 bales of certified stocks. The Cotlook A Index was steady on October 9 at 84.00 cents/lb. The USDA Adjusted World Price (AWP) was trimmed by another 40 points on Thursday to 60.41 cents/lb. It is good for the next week.

Mar 25 Cotton  is at 74.08, down 67 points,

May 25 Cotton  is at 75.44, down 67 points,

Jul 25 Cotton  is at 76.27, down 67 points